The Transformation of American Political Space 1982-2002

The range of acceptable positions about important political issues defines the political space of society. This paper presents a model of how political space is transformed over time based upon linear differential equations. Constructable transformations of political space are ones that can be modeled by such equations and thus can result from gradual evolutionary change. Non-constructable transformations cannot be represented in this way because they embody political discontinuities of some kind. A simple typology of constructable transformations is discussed and illustrated. Methods of estimating the political space transformation model are outlined and applied to General Social Survey data for 1982, 1993, and 2002. This leads to an analysis of how American political space transformed from 1982 to 1993 and then from 1993 to 2002. The former transformation proves to be constructable while the latter is not, probably due to the effects of 9/11. The 1982 to 1993 period witnessed a tentative simplification of American political space featuring some left-right polarization. The 1993 to 2002 period is characterized by a conservatizing transformation of American political space which, the analysis suggests, could result from the attacks of 9/11.